Monday, February 9, 2009

Graph of the Day: USA Gulf of Mexico oil production forecast

Many have hoped that the Gulf of Mexico oil supply would reverse declining US and Mexican oil production, but apparently that’s not to be. This is from The Oil Drum:

Here's an update of USA Gulf of Mexico (GoM) oil production using the most recent EIA data. GoM production peaked in June 2002 at 1.73 mbd and is forecast to continue declining.

Although the USA GoM is only producing about 1.3 mbd, it remains the region of the biggest future capacity additions for the entire USA. The 250 kbd capacity Thunder Horse project started oil production in mid 2008 and BP claims that it is producing 200 kbd now, but it has not stopped the overall declining trend in GoM production. Blind Faith and Neptune also started in 2008, adding almost 100 kbd capacity, but they have not helped to reverse the declining GoM production trend.

2009 GoM projects include Shenzi, 85 kbd; Tahiti, 125 kbd; and Thunder Hawk, 60 kbd. Will these projects combined with the 2008 projects reverse the declining GoM production trend?

USA Gulf of Mexico Oil Production Forecast Update

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