Phosphorus famine: the threat to our food supply

This underappreciated resource--a key component of fertilizers--is still decades from running out. But we must act now to conserve it, or future agriculture could collapse

By David A. Vaccari   

As complex as the chemistry of life may be, the conditions for the vigorous growth of plants often boil down to three numbers, say, 19-12-5. Those are the percentages of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, prominently displayed on every package of fertilizer. In the 20th century the three nutrients enabled agriculture to increase its productivity and the world’s population to grow more than sixfold. But what is their source? We obtain nitrogen from the air, but we must mine phosphorus and potassium. The world has enough potassium to last several centuries. But phosphorus is a different story. Readily available global supplies may start running out by the end of this century. By then our population may have reached a peak that some say is beyond what the planet can sustainably feed.

Moreover, trouble may surface much sooner. As last year’s oil price swings have shown, markets can tighten long before a given resource is anywhere near its end. And reserves of phosphorus are even less evenly distributed than oil’s, raising additional supply concerns. The U.S. is the world’s second-largest producer of phosphorus (after China), at 19 percent of the total, but 65 percent of that amount comes from a single source: pit mines near Tampa, Fla., which may not last more than a few decades. Meanwhile nearly 40 percent of global reserves are controlled by a single country, Morocco, sometimes referred to as the “Saudi Arabia of phosphorus.” Although Morocco is a stable, friendly nation, the imbalance makes phosphorus a geostrategic ticking time bomb.

In addition, fertilizers take an environmental toll. Modern agricultural practices have tripled the natural rate of phosphorus depletion from the land, and excessive runoff into waterways is feeding uncontrolled algal blooms and throwing aquatic ecosystems off-kilter. While little attention has been paid to it as compared with other elements such as carbon or nitrogen, phosphorus has become one of the most significant sustainability issues of our time. ...

Phosphorus Famine: The Threat to Our Food Supply

Technorati Tags: resource depletion,agriculture,algae bloom,dead zone

Colin Campbell and 100 months of Peak Oil

By Kjell Aleklett

Colin Campbell has now written newsletters for 100 months. 100 months is a long tenure. In his first letter he introduced the world to a new term, ”Peak Oil”. I first made contact with Colin by email in the autumn of 2000 when I needed a little information for a figure and I believe that it was in December of the same year that I first spoke with him by telephone. He was then writing that which would become newsletter number 1. He spoke about the idea of an organisation that would study the peak of oil production and the name ”Association for the Study of the Oil Peak” was mentioned. But the acronym ASOP did not roll off the tongue in the right way so the suggestion to swap the words around to say Peak Oil was discussed. The acronym became ASPO and the term ”Peak Oil” was coined.

Today, ”Peak Oil” is an expression that is used around the world. The Parliament of the Walloon Region of Belgium has even formed a new standing committee for Peak Oil. Around the world, presidents, national inquiries, parliamentary interrogations etc. have put Peak Oil on the agenda. I just made a search on Google using the exact term “Peak Oil” and found 2,700,000 hits. Peak Oil is spreading around the world like wildfire. Colin Campbell and ASPO have, for all time, written their names into history. When the history books of the future discuss the first half of the 21st century Peak Oil will be part of that history.

Colin Campbell means and has meant so much for so many. He has changed my entire life. Without Colin’s support it would never have been possible to begin the research work that my group now undertakes at Uppsala University. We now have the opportunity to describe in academic publications many of the ideas that Colin has had regarding the world’s future oil production. The world’s first ”Peak Oil” Ph.D. defended his doctoral thesis in 2007, and Colin was one of the supervisors. Colin has always asserted that ”depletion” is the decisive parameter for the world’s future and we support him. Decline in oilfields is also very important and we can now show that the maximal depletion is the same as the decline.

Colin concluded his 100th newsletter with these lines:
“This is the hundredth and final Edition of the newsletter. It has been a stimulating experience engendering a deep sense of gratitude to all those who have supported the endeavour with such enthusiasm, many to become close personal friends.” …

Colin Campbell and 100 months of Peak Oil

Technorati Tags: Peak Oil,resource depletion

Japan honours 'Limits to Growth' science author

TOKYO (AFP) — Japan on Thursday awarded its top science prize to a US researcher who decades ago predicted that rapid economic and population growth on a finite planet would lead to the collapse of civilisation.

Professor Dennis Meadows led a research team that in the 1972 study "The Limits to Growth," using a computer model called World3, forecast that on current trends humanity was headed for doom by 2100.

Meadows, of the US Massachusetts Institute of Technology, was the lead author of the study, which became a best-seller but was also attacked as alarmist and opposed to technology and progress.

Emperor Akihito watched Thursday as Meadows, 65, received the 500,000-dollar annual Japan Prize from the country's Science and Technology Foundation for "transformation towards a sustainable society in harmony with nature."

In his study, Meadows argued that "human demand exceeds nature's supply."

Unless the human race switched from exponential population and economic growth to a sustainable system, his team argued, they would "overshoot" the Earth's limits, leading to the collapse of human civilisation.

More than three decades on -- a time span in which the world population has grown from less than four billion to more than six billion -- Meadows said that today he sees even fewer signs of hope.

"In 1972, our projections suggested growth would end in this 21st century, and that still seems inevitable to me," he told a Tokyo conference this week.

"If demand against the planet rises above its carrying capacity, the carrying capacity will decline," he said.

"Growth will not end gradually and peacefully in the distant future. It will end soon and suddenly through overshoot and collapse." …

Japan honours 'Limits to Growth' science author

Technorati Tags: financial collapse,population,resource depletion,Peak Oil

‘Limits to Growth’ predictions surprisingly accurate after 37 years

From The Oil Drum:

This post relates to an article written by my advisor Charles Hall and a close friend of his. The article is available online, but is behind a paywall for nonacademic IPs.

There are only finite resources in the world, but population continues to grow. How will this situation resolve itself? This was a question a group of scientists (Meadows et al), commissioned by the "Club of Rome," attempted to answer back in 1972, in a book called Limits to Growth. The model they presented predicted growing resource scarcity, increasing pollution, and eventual population decline, all prior to 2100.

Charles A. S. Hall and John W. Day revisit these predictions in an article published this month in American Scientist called Revisiting the Limits to Growth After Peak Oil. Their analysis indicates that the predictions from 1972 were surprisingly accurate, considering how long ago they were made:

According to Hall and Day, "The values predicted by the limits-to-growth model and actual data for 2008 are very close." …

Limits to Growth Model Worth Another Look

Technorati Tags: resource depletion,population,Peak Oil